Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Re: Linux GUI

Author:Karl Fast
Posted:3/4/1999; 9:44:18 AM
Topic:DHTML MTTF!
Msg #:3551 (In response to 3532)
Prev/Next:3550 / 3552

Maybe it's just me, but I see a very darwinian process happening in the Linux world. Certain things have died out, replaced by more capable tools. Eg: libc5 -> glibc 2. This darwinian process is not embraced by corporations because they want a product now.

One of the common arguments for why Linux and open source have succeeded where Sun, Novell, Corel, and others have failed, is that they change the rules of the game. I believe that for it to succeed on the desktop, it must figure out a way to change the desktop too, but only for the better. Nobody knows quite how to do this (although if you've seen the screenshots of Windows 2001 that Dvorak has been leaked) then obviously Microsoft has one vision.

Linux will take a long time to win on the desktop, even with a Darwinian process. I think it's 5 years or more away before they have even 5% of the consumer desktop market. On the server it's a winner.

If they really want to win (and I hope they do, this is being typed from my Linux box), my opinion is to forget the desktop altogether, or at least, don't put all their eggs in the desktop basket. The future are PDA's and information appliances. Lots of smaller tools that do a few things very well instead of large machines like we have today that do a lot of things poorly. Just as our notion of what is a computer has changed dramatically in the last 20 years, it will change even more so in the next 20.

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