Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Suckers, Micropayments, Advertising, Stock Valuation

Author:Erik Neu
Posted:11/17/1999; 5:01:39 AM
Topic:CallTheShots.com
Msg #:13133 (In response to 13125)
Prev/Next:13132 / 13134

Since almost everybody is "giving away the store on the Web" (the WSJ seems to be a notable and successful exception), I think there is enormous resistance--both from content providers and consumers--to the idea that anyone will every pay anything to view web content.

IMO, a couple of things need to happen to drive more acceptance of micropayments. People need to realize that advertising is not going go support a profitable business model. Stratospheric stock valuations need to come down, in line with the realization that many e-business ventures may never make money, let alone the kind of money required to justify their market caps.

This order of events--realization that advertising won't foot the bill triggering a decline in stock prices--seems most likely, but I think it could go the other way, as well. If the economy goes into recession and the overall stock market plunges, it will take down e-oriented stocks with it, leading to re-evaluation of business models and rejection of advertising-only as viable model for most sites. Then, slowly, micropayments would take hold.

The way I look at it, to a large extent the suckers buying e-stocks at vastly inflated prices are subsidizing my Internet experience. Right now everything is free--enjoy it while it lasts. Although of course in the *long* run, e-services based on a more solid, profit-based model should deliver superior consumer benefits.

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