Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Re: Give Democracy a Chance

Author:David Rothgery
Posted:2/19/2000; 6:15:08 AM
Topic:scriptingNews outline for 2/18/00
Msg #:15116 (In response to 15115)
Prev/Next:15115 / 15117

Dave, a McCain win won't continue the debate. It'll end it, and McCain will be the GOP nominee.

The next two primaries after that are Arizona ( almost a given for McCain; it's his home state ) and Michigan, both on Tuesday. McCain's leading in Michigan, but Bush might win there if and only if he wins in SC. With only two days to try and make up ground, Bush certainly won't be able to follow an SC loss with a Michigan win. But the makeup of the electorate in Michigan favors McCain, and it's another open primary, so McCain could well win even if he lost in South Carolina.

I just can't see Bush credibly going on after losing Michigan, Arizona, and South Carolina. I can't see McCain going on if he loses SC and Michigan and just barely wins in his home state of Arizona.

The only way this race continues is if Bush barely wins SC, and McCain has a similarly narrow victory in Michigan. Then things probably keep going till at least March 7, and maybe till March 14.

George Will, in the Washington Post, makes the same case, albeit more elequently. Republican pollster Frank Luntz, in an interview with National Review Online, disagrees. He argues that even if McCain wins in SC and Michigan, he only has a 40% chance of winning the nomination.

Disclaimer: I'm a Bush supporter.

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