Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Re: A World Without Microsoft

Author:Rob Bender
Posted:6/8/2000; 9:40:03 AM
Topic:A World Without Microsoft
Msg #:17650 (In response to 17642)
Prev/Next:17649 / 17651

People have been predicting the Fall of Microsoft for years now. Netscape, Apple, Network Computers, Information Appliances, Application Service Providers, Open Source, Linux and now the DOJ have all been hailed as potential MS-slayers at some time or another. Thankfully, Open Source and Linux have done a decent job of preventing from MS from obtaining a monopoly in the server-side market, but so far nothing has really given MS a run in the desktop market. And as good a thing as it is to have open-standards and variety in that big cloud labelled "Internet" on network diagrams, the overwhelming majority of people are stuck relying on Microsoft software as their only window (no pun intended) to that vast Internet cloud.

And sorry to say it, I don't see Open Source as posing any threat to the MS desktop monopoly. Linux still pales in usability compared to Windows (not that Windows is a masterpiece of usability either). Sadly, Mozilla in its current state still offers no good reason for end users to switch over from IE. And even all the latest virus scares still don't seem to be making a dent in MS Office usage either.

Finally, the DOJ break-up probably won't be changing any of this either. 90% of people will still be running Windows on their desktop and most people will still be using Office too.

I throw my vote to the open-up-the-source-and-APIs. Allowing people to write their own (improved) drop-in replacements for the pieces of the MS empire is probably the only way to revive competition and real innovation without throwing the desktop market into complete turmoil.

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