Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

This bubble has already been burst

Author:Dave Winer
Posted:1/6/2000; 4:40:50 PM
Topic:HTML Renderer in the MacOS
Msg #:14144 (In response to 14142)
Prev/Next:14143 / 14145

My experience with a Mac in 1984 changed my view of computing completely. Completely. From "thanks I'd rather type and glue" to "how do I get one of those?".

I was interviewed today on exactly this subject by WideOpenNews.

I told the story, and re-explored it for myself. The Mac in 1986 was a truly wonderful thing. What it did for people who weren't using computers was incredible, just typing this gives me goosebumps.

But that bubble could only be burst once. Think about it. There were a lot of very high IQ, highly educated professional people who had never used a computer. The Apple II/Visicalc combo cracked thru a lot of that (read yesterday's Array for a remembrance), but it took the Mac Plus to burst the rest of that bubble. That was when our non-technical relatives and friends got into using computers.

Now, a generation later (it's The Year 2000 now), there just isn't that reservoir of highly creative people to be energized like the 1980s provided. Everyone who grew up after that and got a decent education also knows how to use a PC. The people who have not yet learned how to use one, are probably not going to make the incredible contribution that early Mac users could make.

Further, there's no sign that Apple has a breakthrough in the pipe. This stuff they're doing is strictly incremental. It's true that computers today have a lot more memory than the old ones did. There's no reason for the OS to be limited to 32-by-32 icons. This is not a revolution, and as Doc points out on Cluetrain, everything Apple offers on iTools is available elsewhere without the Mac-only thing. The only innovation is exclusivity.

I predict a ghost-town. Why give a review to Apple when Epinions is there? Why send a card thru Apple when Blue Mountain Arts is funkier and more fun? Why post something on Apple's website if your cousin who uses a Dell can't post a response, or even read it?

It's fraught with problems. I was very pleased to see the Wired piece. I loved the quote at the end that called their plan a way to build a better dinosaur.

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