Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.
Re: scriptingNews outline for 4/15/2000
Author: Eric Soroos Posted: 4/15/2000; 8:28:09 AM Topic: scriptingNews outline for 4/15/2000 Msg #: 16276 (In response to 16272) Prev/Next: 16275 / 16277
McLemore is still betting his money on the Internet. After all, almost 18 billion households will spend almost $40 billion this year online. from Dot-coms in deep depressionUmmm. If those are the numbers that people are using to value .coms, it's no wonder that there's a whole lotta shakeout going on.
I know the first number is off by a few orders of magnitude, and that doesn't leave me much confidence in the second.
For a sec, let's assume that the second number is right. And let's compare that to a company that is in the tech industry and actually making money.
For reference, the second number is roughly 2x microsoft's yearly sales. If there's a billion in profit this year in the dot coms, that's .... 1/4 to 1/6 of microsoft's take. So _if_ microsoft has a logical valuation, then the .coms of the world justify a collective market cap somewhere between 1/8 and 1/12 of microsoft. Which pre crash would be about 50 billion. I'll give myself an error margin here, so call it somewhere between 0 and 100 billion.
Somewhere in this will come the realization that for the internet to succeed, it is not just going to reward the .coms, there will have to be broad benefits to the business and general community as a whole.
eric
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