Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Re: OK, so what do people think is gonna happen..

Author:Dave Winer
Posted:4/16/2000; 9:33:15 PM
Topic:OK, so what do people think is gonna happen..
Msg #:16316 (In response to 16313)
Prev/Next:16315 / 16317

Jacob, I have no idea what it will do tomorrow, but I predict a bear market for a year or more, and lots of rock and roll in the dotcoms, with a shakeout and a few left standing after lots of mergers and acquisitions and door-shutting. I think Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" motto will come home. What a hangover we're going to have. People were buying stocks because they liked the logo of a company or they thought the website was useful (even if they weren't paying to use it). I agree with the premise of the article from Friday (I think) that pointed out that Amazon is a distributor and that entitles them to 2% margins. (Low barrier to entry, brand name or no brand name.) Now that's what I believe, here's what I hope. I hope investors and users save some of their money to pay for web services.

BTW, a shakeout will be good for all of us. A return to reality. Some hope of employee retention. No more BMW's for signing on. A little respect for money and work and customers. (And no one who gets something for free is a customer.)

BTW, I'm in blue chips, US and Europe, very little in bonds. I'm not going to sell anything tomorrow. What about you???

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