Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.
Re: OK, so what do people think is gonna happen..
Author: Eric Soroos Posted: 4/16/2000; 11:13:37 PM Topic: OK, so what do people think is gonna happen.. Msg #: 16320 (In response to 16316) Prev/Next: 16318 / 16321
BTW, I'm in blue chips, US and Europe, very little in bonds. I'm not going to sell anything tomorrow. What about you???Strategy: Diverse Buy and Hold. No market timing, as the last time I tried, I lost 10% the first day. (one of the october mini crashes). I'm in for the long term, no short term money in equities, short term being < 5 year horizon. I have a tendency towards value investment. Last significant move was a rebalancing early summer of last year. For other world views, see this post.
In: Blue Chips, Foreign, maybe 20% growth, cash. No bonds*.
Results: Up something like 25% last year across the whole portfolio. (although it's hard to tell, since there were significant contributions, and I haven't really done all the math). Down 1.2% for this year. Ho Hum.
Strategy: I'm not going to move for a while. There may be opportunities to rebalance my portfolio this summer.
* I don't like bonds for the following reason:
For bonds to rise in value, interest rates will have to fall. Until very recently, we were at historic lows for interest rates. Stocks were doing very well at low interest rates. The same rising interest rate pressures that hurt stocks will hurt bonds. (although perhaps not at the same rate or timing)
In my world view, bonds have been a low return item that is currently correlated with stocks. I'd rather balance with cash/moneymarket (a low return item that is uncorrelated with the stock market).
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