Archive of UserLand's first discussion group, started October 5, 1998.

Popularity Analogy: Reagan vs. Bush

Author:Erik L. Neu
Posted:9/1/2000; 6:27:47 AM
Topic:scriptingNews outline for 8/31/2000
Msg #:20664 (In response to 20651)
Prev/Next:20663 / 20665

I agree with this. It reminds me of some political analysis I read contrasting Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. After the gulf war, Bush's popularity was stratospheric--I believe well over 80%. So high that many high-profile Democrats (including Al Gore, who had run in '88), prophylactically announced they were not seeking their party's nomination. Yet Bush was defeated in the next election. Why?

Because his support was a kilometer wide but only a meter deep. All it took was a middling recession to wash it away. It was observed that Reagan, who "sailed be a fixed star"*, and elicited much stronger feelings, for and against, could NEVER have achieved the kind of popularity levels that Bush enjoyed. But, by the same token, he would never have seen his popularity erode from under him the same way it did from Bush.

___________ *attribution to Peggy Noonan.

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